Bracket Watch: Kansas deserves the No. 1 overall seed

We know, we know: This timing is weird. We’re moving Kansas to the No. 1 overall seed, less than 24 hours after Bill Self — merely the top coach in the sport — went into the hospital and was declared unavailable for the Big 12 tournament. The Jayhawks won on Thursday anyway, albeit against a 19-14 West Virginia team they had already beaten twice. And neither Alabama nor Houston lost, which would have been pretty hard to do since they don’t start their conference tournaments until Friday.

So, has the Madness fully taken over our brain, like a cordyceps fungus, or what?

Frankly, this is the place we thought we’d end up for a few weeks now; it just seemed weird to do after Kansas lost at Texas last weekend. Beating West Virginia counted as another Quad 1 win (Quad 1A, in fact, since the Mountaineers came into the day ranked 19th in NET), and thus the Jayhawks are now 16-6 in the top quad. Coming into this year, the record for most Quad 1 wins before the NCAA Tournament was 13 by Michigan State in 2019. KU has shattered that, and could still add two more. (It also leads the country with seven Quad 1A wins).

Kansas is 20-6 in the first two quads. By comparison, Houston is 13-1, while Alabama is 12-5. And sure, the Jayhawks have had an enormous amount of Q1 opportunities, mostly by playing in the stacked Big 12. Some mid-majors are lucky to get three or four Q1 games all year. But to look at it another way, Kansas’ Quad 1 winning percentage is 73 percent; Alabama’s is 64 percent, Purdue’s is 69 percent and UCLA’s is 63 percent. True, Houston has won five of its six Q1 games (83 percent), but the Cougars have only beaten two top 30 opponents (Virginia and Saint Mary’s). Two of their Q1 wins came against UCF and Oregon, both of which will, barring a surprise conference tournament run, miss the NCAA Tournament. There’s simply no comparison to what Kansas has done in the best league in the country and what Houston has done in the AAC.

The only real knock on the Jayhawks: their curiously low predictive metrics. They came into the day ranked eighth in NET; the three previous overall No. 1 seeds in the NET era were ranked No. 3 (Duke 2019), 1 (Gonzaga 2021) and 1 (Gonzaga 2022). KenPom also has KU at No. 8.

But Kansas ranks No. 1 in Strength of Record and No. 2 in KPI, the two results-oriented metrics used by the committee. It also has the No. 1 strength of schedule. Who you beat, who you played and where you played them are always the three most important questions during seeding. And there’s no doubt who’s No. 1 when viewed that way.

It would, of course, be nice to know if the Hall of Famer will be back on the sidelines next week. Get well soon, Bill Self.

Other quick notes on our latest bracket, now just two days away from Selection Sunday:

• While moving Kansas to No. 1 overall, it felt like a good time for new seed scrubbing, so you’ll notice some changes from earlier in the week. The final No. 2 seed looks open for business after Baylor lost to Iowa State on Thursday, sending the Bears to 11-10 in Quad 1. We went with Gonzaga for now, but keep an eye on Marquette if it can get by UConn in the Big East semis on Friday.

• The bubble, as usual, is sorting itself out. Michigan and North Carolina are no longer under serious consideration for the field, while Nevada got knocked out by losing to San Jose State. There was no real shame in losing to Texas on Thursday, but Oklahoma State now has 15 losses and could really have used that win. Penn State and Rutgers solidified their status by beating Illinois and Michigan, respectively, in the Big Ten quarters.

Utah State moves into our field; the Aggies have some eye-popping metrics (22nd NET, 23rd KenPom and 14th KPI) but could still use another win in the Mountain West tournament to feel more secure. They’ll face Boise State on Friday. Also re-joining the dance: Arizona State, which beat USC in the Pac-12 tournament for its fifth Quad 1 victory.

• Our Final Four pairings are Midwest vs. East and South vs. West, based on our seed list, which you can find below. The highest remaining seeds in every conference tournament are denoted with an asterisk. Bracket Watch will appear Saturday and Sunday morning with a final update before the selection show Sunday evening, if warranted.

(Photo of Kansas’ Gradey Dick: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)